Massoud Rajavi’s decision to launch the “Forough Javidan” (Eternal Light) operation in 1988, which resulted in significant casualties for his forces, was driven by a complex mix of strategic miscalculation, political ambition, and a profound misunderstanding of the prevailing conditions. The operation, also known as Mersad by Iran, was a large-scale military offensive by the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK) from Iraq into Iran, aiming to capture Tehran and overthrow the Iranian government in three days.
Rajavi’s miscalculations
One primary reason for Rajavi’s decision was his belief that the Iranian government was on the verge of collapse and that the Iranian public would rise up to support the MEK’s advance. This assessment was a critical misjudgment.
The Iran-Iraq War had severely weakened Iran, and the country had just accepted UN Resolution 598, signaling a willingness to end the conflict. Rajavi interpreted this as a sign of the Iranian government’s weakness and desperation, believing that a final push would lead to its downfall. He underestimated the Iranian people’s hatred against the MEK and their loyalty to the Islamic Republic, despite the war’s hardships. The MEK had been largely isolated from the realities inside Iran, operating from Iraq under Saddam Hussein’s patronage, which may have contributed to this skewed perception. Also, the Iranian nation despised the MEK because it had allied with the invader, Saddam Hussein.
Rajavi’s deep-rooted animosity against Iran
The MEK had been engaged in a pitiless war with the Islamic Republic of Iran since 1981, including from Iraq during the Iran-Iraq War. Rajavi, having sided with Saddam Hussein against his Iranian country-fellow, was seen as a traitor by many Iranians. This intense ideological conflict and desire for revenge likely fueled his determination to launch a decisive attack.
Another significant factor was the MEK’s reliance on Saddam Hussein’s support and their integration into the Iraqi military strategy. Saddam armed the MEK with Iranian weapons captured from Iranian troops and provided them with a base in Iraq. Massoud Rajavi, had close cooperation with Saddam Hussein, who entrusted them with the assassination of figures like Lieutenant General Sayyad Shirazi, who had inflicted heavy losses on Saddam’s army during the Iran-Iraq war. Saddam’s strategic objectives, which included creating a buffer zone and destabilizing Iran, aligned with the Rajavi’s ambitions, leading to a joint offensive. The MEK, with Iraqi air power cover, aimed to advance rapidly towards Kermanshah and ultimately Tehran.
Rajavi’s cult-like dictatorship
The MEK’s internal structure and leadership style also played a role. The organization was characterized by a “guru-like-leadership” where Rajavi held “divine power” and brainwashed members, controlling even their personal matters. This cult-like environment fostered unquestioning loyalty and may have suppressed dissenting opinions regarding the feasibility of the operation. Members were reportedly enslaved to the leadership’s decisions, making them willing to sacrifice their lives for the cause.
Bad timing for Rajavi
Finally, the timing of the operation, shortly after Iran accepted UN Resolution 598, was critical. Rajavi likely saw this as a window of opportunity, believing that Iran’s military was disorganized. However, Iran’s acceptance of the ceasefire allowed it to re-focus its military efforts on the MEK, leading to a swift and decisive counter-attack known as Operation Mersad. The Iranian military, including the Revolutionary Guard and the Army, unified their efforts and launched a coordinated response, utilizing paratroopers and air power to demolish the MEK forces. The MEK’s expectation of a popular uprising in Iran never materialized, and they were met with strong resistance from the Iranian military and civilians.
In summary, Massoud Rajavi’s decision to launch the Forough Javidan operation was a catastrophic miscalculation rooted in an overestimation of the MEK’s support within Iran, an underestimation of the Iranian government’s resilience, deep-rooted animosity towards Iran, and a strategic alignment with Saddam Hussein that ultimately backfired. He lost over one thousand of his forces including men, women and even child soldiers like Maryam Gheitani and Zohair Zakeri.
Mazda Parsi