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US’s New Strategy and the MKO

Bush’s new speech and his announcement that more than 20000 new troops will be deployed to Iran and repetition of his hostile stance against Iran and Syrian is not a new strategy; it’s not even a tactic. It’s a policy to advance Bush’s plans.

It’s a long time that plans such as "the Big Middle East" have been marginalized. What have caused this change were the key changes starting by removal of Rumsfeld, John Bolton, and Khalilzad, Abizaid and Negroponte.

Now we should wait to see US’s new plan, for the execution of which Bush has decided to deploy more troops to the country- despite all opposition by politicans and people.

Bush and his team have for long focused on getting out of Iraq in a proper way so as to save the face of the US.

This plan has also other dimensions including giving more authority to the Iraqi government and accepting regional policies of President Talabani and Prime Minister Maliki.

Some may think that the US wants to start more wars in the region, but the evidence doesn’t support this idea.

Harsh stances by Rice and Burns against Iran and Syria and their support for Bush’s comments and the softer stances of Robert Gates indicate that after Baker-Hamilton report, Bush’s team is centering its policies on political work. Even the recent UN resolution against Iran should be seen along with other political pressures on Iran.

Indeed, harsh gesture of Americans against Iran and Syria is a planned move to pave the way for talks with these two countries!

By accusing Iran and Syria and attributing the unrest in Iraq to these two countries, Bush is in fact reminding these two countries of their duties for establishing security in Iraq.

It’s amazing that Mr. Talabani is heading to Syria right after Mr. Bush’s comments!

US’s new plan is complex and it should be discussed at a right time. However, it can be said that it’s based on Baker’s analyses as well as on US’s intelligence on the threats from Al-Qaeda and Baathists- despite current propaganda against Iran.

Meanwhile, MKO’s position and status in Iraq is more interesting for us!

I agree with comments on MKO’s hopes about this new plan since, regarding MKO’s opportunistic nature, nothing else can be expected.

The fact, however, is that according to the advices of all security experts, US is trying to recreate the golden opportunities it lost in 2003; an opportunity according to which, it was possible to extradite MKO members in exchange for receiving privileges from Iran.

Keeping an eye on Rajavi and transferring him to another place for more protection also show that Americans are aware of the value of this exchange.

In addition, Americans have expressed their support for the security projects of Maliki’s government according to which MKO should be expelled from Iraq. However, they want to take advantage of their extradition to Iran.

So, the current process in Iraq is moving towards the strengthening of Mr. Maliki’s government and weakness of security threats on which the MKO relies. The outcomes of these plans will soon appear.

Mohammed Moradi – 2007/01/15

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